It Ain’t Over, ’Til It’s Over
Or, at least until the shooting stops….
Nope. Won’t be like the good old days (1869-1996).
Used to be (God, that sounds old timey), we counted the votes. The nominees congratulated each other for running a great campaign. Everyone called for unity. The winner went to the West Wing. The loser went home to write a book.
That ain’t happening Tuesday. My guess is it may go something like this:
6AM - Polls open. People start voting. County election officials start troubleshooting the usual miscues over ID’s and signatures. No big deal.
About noon Eastern Time, the Mad King, declares victory, based on claims his exit polls are “an act of love.” The media remind him, and the rest of us, polls won’t close and counting won’t begin for another seven or eight hours. County voting officials say final results won’t be official for days. Not having any of that, the Mad King screams “fake news.”
At 2PM Eastern Time, the Mad King’s advisors are worried. In fact, their exit polls don’t match the boss’ fantasy. Even though millions voted early, there are still long lines at voting centers. Lots of women wearing Kamala shirts and badges. Not many hungover bro’s. Trump fires up Truth Social and Twitter and starts screaming “stolen election.”
On cue, the MAGA Misinformation Machine opens a fire hose of conspiracies. Masses of illegal Haitians voting. Venezuelan gangsters hacking into voting machines. Someone’s cousin’s neighbor’s grandfather’s uncle voted twice for Harris and is heading back for a third time. Drag queens and transgender persons are shooting lasers from space at MAGA-aligned precincts. MAGA surrogates hit the network talk shows with tales of chaos and impropriety at polling places. Meanwhile, county officials nationwide say turnout is heavy, but outside of a few minor SNAFUs, things are going well.
At 3PM Eastern Time, Kamala Harris speaks from her headquarters. She calls on all voters, especially hers, to ignore the wackadoodle misinformation and, please, get out and vote. She’ll tells everyone to stay calm and let the poll workers do their jobs. She emphasizes neither she nor Donald Trump has won anything, yet.
About 2PM in Arizona, some puffed up MAGA lawyer claims fraud at a South Phoenix precinct. He asks a Maricopa County Superior Court judge for an emergency order to freeze the vote and seize ballot boxes. Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richter and Board of Supervisors Chair Jack Sellers demand the MAGA lawyer be held in contempt and allow the election to go forward. Identical scenarios play out in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The Misinformation Machine gins up the outrage.
About 6PM Eastern Time, somewhere, maybe here in Arizona, some kitted up yahoo screaming “stop the steal” aims his AR15 at some unarmed poll workers and demand they turn over their ballot boxes. They do, and he sets them on fire.
About 10:30PM Eastern Time, based on exit polling; actual returns in Blue Wall states; surprising pro-Harris results in Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, and New Hampshire; and positive Harris trends in Nevada and Arizona…the vote is signaling a strong Harris win. Trump mics up with Brett Baier on FOX News. “You know, I won this election and I won in 2020. But, the Kom-dumb-alah fascists and commies are stealing our country! Thousands of illegals are voting. I’m calling on the Proud Boys, the 3 Percenters, and our beautiful MAGA citizens to Make America Great Again! Stop this steal by any means necessary!”
At 11PM Eastern Time, with MAGA violence reported at multiple voting centers and Harris supporters protesting in the streets, President Biden announces an “Elevated” threat level for domestic terrorism. “Anyone actively threatening or terrorizing poll workers and obstructing those exercising their right to vote will be arrested and prosecuted. I am calling on former President Trump to tell his supporters to stand down immediately.”
At Midnight Eastern Time, with the National Guard on standby in multiple states, the governors of Texas, Florida, Georgia, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Arkansas declare a state of emergency and seize control of the election from county officials.
It’s starting to feel very banana republic…
Dramatic and Overblown?
Hope so. If it is, I’ll gladly accept your criticism.
But, I can’t get January 6th out of my mind…can’t stop hearing all the Mad King’s threats of vengeance. He means it. And, I’m not the only one paying attention.
Steve Simon, served on the U.S. National Security Council. So did Jonathan Stevenson, who also taught strategic studies at the US Naval War College. Their article “The Peril of Civil Breakdown” published October 10th in the New York Review, is beyond sobering.
“Today the US political situation radiates civil instability. Extremism stoked on the Internet has generated the kind of stark disengagement with opposing positions that is conducive to violence. Virulent groups are gaining traction by voicing intense hostility to a federal government perceived as heavy-handed and excessively protective of minorities—an attitude that has coursed through some parts of America for decades, just beneath the surface.”
“More than a quarter of Republicans claim to believe that violence will be necessary to prevent racial and cultural degradation.”
“Indications that Trump’s mental faculties are declining and his rhetorical impulsiveness increasing sharpen concerns about incitements to political violence that a second term could bring. Recently his verbal attacks on trial judges in the cases against him prompted followers to urge on social media that the judges be beaten, tortured, and killed. Sympathetic state and local law enforcement officials would be more emboldened to look the other way or, worse, collude with them. Support for a violent response from the left would rise significantly, as it did among Democrats when Republicans claimed that Biden’s victory was fraudulent, diminishing only after efforts to overturn it had clearly failed.”
But Wait, There’s More!
Read the whole piece here and prepare to be depressed. Simon and Stevenson offer a Trumpian path to stealing the election employing his co-conspirators in the U.S. House and the Supreme Court:
“The rhetoric of his campaign has been grossly autocratic and anti-constitutional, and he has demonstrated clear intent to rally willing Republican state election officials to improperly refuse to certify the vote regardless of the Supreme Court’s rejection of the “independent state legislature” theory, which purportedly justified such an effort. A plausible chain of events could lead to nationwide civil conflict: Harris wins both a popular and an Electoral College majority, state officials and Congress refuse to certify the results, Trump claims victory, Harris appeals to the US Supreme Court, the conservative majority turns her down, the decision goes to the House, it votes Harris or Trump in, and spontaneous outbreaks of local unrest ensue.”
We’ve Talked About This…
If you’re a regular reader of Takes From State 48 (I appreciate it), you’ll remember my warnings about these scenarios. Living in Arizona will do that to you.
For 25 years, I’ve covered the authoritarian convulsions here in “Ari-bama” from the likes of Joe Arpaio, Russell Pearce, Andrew Thomas and even Governor Ice Cream…watched militia wackos wandering around the state capitol with assault rifles… witnessed a chaotic legislature with more than a few White Supremacists and Christian Nationalists pissing all over human rights.
In Arizona, it’s o.k. to let inmates cook outside in jail cells topping 120 degrees…o.k. to bitch and moan about “illegals” while immigrants do the landscaping and clean the rooms at posh resorts…o.k. to let police officers beat the crap out of innocent people while whining about DOJ oversight.
In the 1960’s, Barry Goldwater was Trump before Trump, a fake cowboy who would be perfectly comfortable invoking the insurrection act. He birthed this whole mess, but you won’t hear that from anyone in State 48.
The sun may shine everyday here, but in its soul, Arizona is a dark, dark place.
It Won’t Be Over Tuesday…
Or Wednesday. Or next week. Or next year. No matter who wins, half the country wants them dead. The winner will live in a legislative world of single-vote margins and nonstop court actions. Sounds so very appealing.
So, what next?
Two thoughts from panelists on the November 3rd edition of Meet The Press…one hopeful and the other a realist.
Cristiina Londono Rooney, Senior Washington Correspondent for Telemundo:
“None of us thought we would ever be here. We would – we never thought we'd have Kamala Harris almost – you know, being tied with Donald Trump. So what I'm watching for is what this election is going to teach us, teach our country, the results. We’re going to – we have so much to learn about the new voters, the new parties. And I'm really looking forward to seeing if the power of the women – the woman voter and the power of the Latino vote, if this sleeping giant finally woke up and is making itself heard.”
Chuck Todd, NBC News Chief Political Analyst:
“My greatest fear about this election is if Trump wins I think it, for a generation, is what they believe this is how you conduct yourself in politics and that this will cement this for a generation. I fear the transactional nature of him could actually turn the party into a kleptocracy if we're not careful. And one thing about political parties when they lose, they end up trying to emulate the party that wins. Not necessarily, and while Democrats have been trying to be the anti-version of this, losing two out of three, there's going to be its own reckoning inside the left that could have some saying, ‘Hey, if you can't beat them, join them,’ you know, whether it's lying or exaggerating, whatever you want to -- I do think that that is, that is what I think is on the ballot about our politics going forward for another, for another half generation.”
Again, I hope I’m wrong about violence. As you vote, and follow the results, I wish us all the courage and wisdom to choose a peaceful transfer of power.
A Word About Takes From State 48
Thanks to all of you for your support. I’ve published 46 of these since 2021 and readership exceeded my expectations. Wanted to let you know I’ll be updating my readers list and dropping subscribers who’ve voted with their feet, and maybe haven’t opened a column in a while. No change for those of you who are regular readers. Of course, if you like what we’re publishing, please share with a friend.
Be safe and be well.